How Choice Of Running Mate May Either Make Or Mar Tinubu’s Chances Of Winning 2023 Election

After a successful conduct of presidential primary election last week Wednesday, which culminated in the emergence of former governor of Lagos, Asiwaju Bola Ahmed Tinubu as its presidential candidate, the All Progressive Congress is now faced with the arduous task of selecting the appropriate running mate ahead of 2023.

To make the situation more critical, the Independent National Electoral Commission, INEC has issued a deadline to all political parties for the submission of presidential candidate names and their running mates. They now have till June 17th to wrap up the entire process.

In APC, the controversy has been revolving around Muslim Muslim and Muslim Christian ticket. There are several factors that are working for and agaisnt any of the two choices.

Whichever way the pendulum swings, there is an amber light for Tinubu and the ruling party ahead of the forthcoming general election.

Presently, there is an argument among the party members on the possibility of leaning on 1993 strategy as a way of getting out of the dilemma. The thought is on the direction of picking a Muslim person from the North who will use his clout and reach to draw votes from the North.

Afterall, Abiola and Babagana Kingibe who were both Muslims ran on the same ticket in 1993 and won massively. This is the argument by the proponent of the idea in the APC.

If this argument is allowed to sail through in APC, it will be a suicide mission for Tinubu and the party in 2023.

This is because the situation and mood of the country presently is different from what we had in 1993. At that time, the focus was on Abiola and the need for the southwest region to produce the president. The Northerners voted for Abiola and not really for Kingibe.

This time, Bola Tinubu and the APC need to read and understand the mood of the nation. Religion is more sensitive now than how it was in 1993. If a Muslim person is chosen as running mate to Tinubu, there will be a massive campaign against it by the opposition party and this will dictate the direction of Christian votes 2023.

At the end, it will drastically affect Tinubu’s chance of winning the election.The second way the choice of presidential candidate can either make or mar APC chances of retaining power beyond 2023 is the region where the running mate is selected from.

As it is now established that the vice presidential candidate can only come from the North, the exact region has become a subject of debate both within the party and in the public.

The party chairman, Abdullahi Adamu is from Nasarawa State, the North West. Tinubu’s strongest contender, Atiku Abubakar of PDP is from Adamawa State, the North East.

It is therefore expected of APC to select its vice presidential candidate from either the North East or North Central. Selecting from the North West will push for resignation of Adamu. The party needs his experience at this time and asking him to resign can be devastating to the party.

Picking a candidate from the North East is the only way to break the stronghold of Atiku in the region. Anything aside this will be highly risky to Tinubu’s chances.

Similarly, the religion of whoever is picked must also be considered. As at this moment, there seems to be no strong Christian politician that can match Atiku politically in the North East.

This is why APC needs to get it right in selecting who Tinubu’s running mate will be. Any wrong decision or mistake at this juncture will be ruinous to the party’s chances of staying in government beyond 2023.